Hardcover (1 to 2 lbs)

Alabama

The Boyz

MVAERICK

Nate Silver

Missouri

Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don't

UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

The Signal and the Noise

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Marisa Silver

Light Hardcover (1 lb or less)

Michigan

"The story of a girl, scorned for her physical deformity, whose passion and salvation lie in her otherworldly ability to transform herself and the world around her"--Amazon.com.

Little Nothing

7c9c7390-8adc-4cca-a91a-8e3e79b59dae

Josie Silver

Kentucky

A Novel

A young chef stumbles on a secret family recipe that might lead her to the love—and life—she's been looking for in this stunning novel from the New York Times bestselling author of One Day in December When Iris decides to move to New York and restart her culinary career, she realizes she underestimated how big the Big Apple really is—all the nostalgic, New York-set movies she'd watched with her mom while eating their special secret-recipe ice cream didn't quite do it justice. And after spending the last few years in a relationship with a man who kept her world as small as possible, she's feeling a little overwhelmed by it all. But Bobby, Iris's best friend, isn't about to let her hide away. He convinces her to come with him to a famous autumn street fair in Little Italy. As they walk around enjoying all the food and life the neighborhood has to offer, a little family-run gelato shop catches her eye—it's the same shop that's in an old photo of her mother's. When Iris returns the next day out of curiosity, she meets the handsome Gio and learns that the shop is in danger of closing. His uncle, sole keeper of their secret family gelato recipe, is in a coma so the family can't make more. When Iris samples the last remaining batch, she realizes that their gelato recipe and her ice cream recipe are one and the same. But how can she tell them she knows it, when she's not sure why Gio's uncle gave it to her mother in the first place? So Iris offers her services as a chef to help them recreate the recipe and begins to find herself falling for Gio and his family. But when Gio's uncle finally wakes up, all of the secrets Iris has been keeping threaten to ruin the new life—and new love—she's been building all winter long.

A Winter in New York

a6c289c3-5ce8-4235-98f9-8bbc6d81ba87-1

Silver RavenWolf

A devastating fire, a rash of farm accidents, a poisoned apple and a woman's mysterious disappearance-what's happening at the Bindart Orchard? People keep secrets but ravens and rabbits bring messages-if you can decipher them. When Cricket Bindart asks Bethany for assistance, the Witches' Night Out coven is drawn into a dark harvest of danger. Do you dare to join them?

In this excerpt from Witches' Key to Terror, the harvest moon has risen, and magick is afoot...

Sixteen-year-old Cricket Bindart knew she was in deep trouble. The dead bunny dangling from the mailbox was a good indication, and the note attached to the limp animal only served as conclusive evidence. "You're fast, but I'm faster... "

A noise in the orchard made her heart kick into double-time. A tendril of autumn-spiced wind fluffed her long copper hair, splaying the ends across the lifeless form of the bunny. The skin on the back of Cricket's neck itched and she imagined that somewhere in those darkened woods someone was watching her. In defiance, she pulled the rabbit free of the mailbox and threw it into the woods.

There was a crash in the bushes. Cricket's eyes widened. From the exact place she had thrown the dead rabbit, a live one appeared, bursting from the thicket and tearing across the cornfield, full force toward the face of the moon.

Light Paperback (1 lb or less)

Maryland

Sixteen-year-old Cricket enlists the help of the Witches' Night Out coven to help her find the stalker who is threatening her family's farm.

Witches' Key to Terror

e0090d44-2864-4c07-8255-8592bb9480f9-0

Silver Ravenwolf

When Bethany "sees" a murder before it happens, along with a mysterious three-eyed woman whose image keeps showing up in mirrors and glass, she and the other members of the Witches' Night Out coven decide to investigate. Together, they are drawn into a dark world of illusions and secrets, murder and magick, where nothing is as it first appears . . . and no one is safe.

Excerpt from Witches' Night of Fear

The wind has risen, and magick is afoot . . .

Bethany peeked out her bedroom window again. The pounding wind screamed, almost like a lamenting woman. Bethany shivered.
"Element of air. Element of flow. Who killed Annabelle? Let me know." Bethany shoved open the window, stumbling backward as a gust of wind tore through her bedroom, rattling the bureau mirror, sending papers spinning in the air, pulling in dust and debris from outside.
She stood in front of the open window; the drapes billowing around her, the picture of little Annabelle clutched firmly in her hand. She could feel the power of magick boiling in her blood, urging her onward, pleading to be released into the universe. "It's time," it whispered. "Time."

From the author of "Witches' Night Out" comes another installment in the "Witches' Chillers" series. Bethany Salem, 16, seeks help from the coven in the case of a local homicide of a convenience store clerk.

Witches' Night of Fear

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Virginia

Hannah Howell

Adrienne Basso

Eve Silver

Arizona

"New York Times"-bestselling author Howell headlines a captivating new collection of tales about women who meet the irresistible vampires who are their destiny, and surrender to complete passion.

Nature of the Beast

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Utah

"Lydia and Freddie. Freddie and Lydia. They'd been together for more than a decade, and Lydia thought their love was indestructible. But she was wrong. On her twenty-eighth birthday, Freddie died in a car accident. So now it's just Lydia, and all she wants to do is hide indoors and sob until her eyes fall out. But Lydia knows that Freddie would want her to try to live fully, happily, even without him. So, enlisting the help of his best friend, Jonas, and her sister, Elle, she takes her first tentative steps into the world, open to life--and perhaps even love--again. But then something inexplicable happens that gives her another chance at her old life with Freddie. A life where none of the tragic events of the past few months have happened. Lydia is pulled again and again across the doorway of her past, living two lives, impossibly, at once. But there's an emotional toll to returning to a world where Freddie, alive, still owns her heart. Because there's someone in her new life, her real life, who wants her to stay. Written with Josie Silver's trademark warmth and wit, The Two Lives of Lydia Bird is a powerful and thrilling love story about the what-ifs that arise at life's crossroads, and what happens when one woman is given a miraculous chance to answer them"--

The Two Lives of Lydia Bird

126fb4be-13a8-4c97-b12b-6792e35682bd-1

Nebraska

Paperback (1 to 2 lbs)

New York

Renowned author Silver RavenWolf unites puzzling mystery, shocking horror and real magick in this adult-themed novel, creating a page-turning delight. As the nights of the year get longer, this is an ideal book to read curled up in front of a fire, or safely tucked under the covers.
The story of Murder at Witches' Bluff takes place in Cold Springs, an evil place with an evil history. As with many small towns, the citizens have many skeletons in their closets. As the mystery unfolds, you'll wonder if someone is willing to kill to make sure those secrets are not revealed.
Siren McKay returns to this, her hometown, to sort her head out. She has been acquitted of murdering her lover because of the testimony of a stranger. The truth is, she killed the man! But why did she do it? Why did the stranger lie to save her? And why does the entire town hate her so? Is it only because they wrongly think she is a Witch? Do they have other, darker hatred? Is she really a Witch?
Together with Tanner the alcoholic firefighter, and Billy the carousing cop, the three must stop the string of mysterious fires that are ravaging the town. Meanwhile, the body count starts to rise. Can they trust the mysterious Lexi, a retired, wealthy stage magician? What secrets does he know that he is not revealing? Which side is he really on?
And then there is the mysterious and beautiful Gemma, Siren's half-sister. Just how far will Gemma's perversions and hatred of Siren go?
This exciting novel will keep you in heart-numbing suspense as you go through the twists and turns of revelation. For exciting fiction with real magick, this book is a must!




Murder at Witches' Bluff

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Book has never been read. Wear on the cover. 

Get lost in this riveting novel as five teen witches join together in the hunt to find a murderer when no one else will even believe that a killing took place, in the thrilling pages of Witches' Night Out by Silver RavenWolf.

This is a novel meant just for teens like you. It deals with your emotions and your feelings, while throwing in enough real magic and edge-of-your-seat scares to keep you turning the pages.

The main character is Bethany Salem. She's pretty much like every other sixteen-year-old girl except for one thing: she's a Witch. Five years ago her mother died, leaving her in the care of her father, a New York City cop, who deposited her in the suburbs with a housekeeper who practices Santeria.

Together with her friends, she has formed the Witches' Night Out Coven. One of their first tasks is to do a ritual for their friend, Joe, who died in a car accident. To their surprise, they discover that it was not an accident.

Can they discover who caused the fatal "accident?"
Why was the crime committed?
If they do find out who did it, can they get adults to believe them?
Will they even get out of this alive?

Written by the author of numerous books on Witchcraft and Wicca, Witches' Night Out is filled with real magic and spiritual information, not the silly fictions found in some other books. In fact, at the end of this book, you'll discover a real spell for ending gossip.

Notice to parents: The author has teenaged children of her own and included things she hoped would inspire her own kids, including a focus on the use of inner strength, courage, and willpower to overcome seemingly insurmountable obstacles.

For exciting reading that teaches positive self-image and magic thrown in with a background of excitement, get Witches' Night Out.


Witches' Night Out 

a0f6568c-bce6-4cfb-a4d0-cbcd0508c6bc-1

California

Ohio

Get lost in this riveting novel as five teen witches join together in the hunt to find a murderer when no one else will even believe that a killing took place, in the thrilling pages of Witches' Night Out by Silver RavenWolf.

This is a novel meant just for teens like you. It deals with your emotions and your feelings, while throwing in enough real magic and edge-of-your-seat scares to keep you turning the pages.

The main character is Bethany Salem. She's pretty much like every other sixteen-year-old girl except for one thing: she's a Witch. Five years ago her mother died, leaving her in the care of her father, a New York City cop, who deposited her in the suburbs with a housekeeper who practices Santeria.

Together with her friends, she has formed the Witches' Night Out Coven. One of their first tasks is to do a ritual for their friend, Joe, who died in a car accident. To their surprise, they discover that it was not an accident.

Witches' Night Out

Red line across bottom of book, came shipped to me like that

Georgia

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * "The perfect book to get lost in this holiday season . . . Josie Silver's characters sneak their way into your heart and stay."--Jill Santopolo, author of The Light We Lost "Get ready to be swept up in a whirlwind romance. It absolutely charmed me."--Reese Witherspoon (A Reese Witherspoon x Hello Sunshine Book Club Pick) Two people. Ten chances. One unforgettable love story. Laurie is pretty sure love at first sight doesn't exist anywhere but the movies. But then, through a misted-up bus window one snowy December day, she sees a man who she knows instantly is the one. Their eyes meet, there's a moment of pure magic...and then her bus drives away. Certain they're fated to find each other again, Laurie spends a year scanning every bus stop and cafe in London for him. But she doesn't find him, not when it matters anyway. Instead they "reunite" at a Christmas party, when her best friend Sarah giddily introduces her new boyfriend to Laurie. It's Jack, the man from the bus. It would be. What follows for Laurie, Sarah and Jack is ten years of friendship, heartbreak, missed opportunities, roads not taken, and destinies reconsidered. One Day in December is a joyous, heartwarming and immensely moving love story to escape into and a reminder that fate takes inexplicable turns along the route to happiness.

One Day in December

ec50548e-3be5-4ec5-91ff-b68e30f4fc8f-1

Pennsylvania

Connecticut

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * A Reese Witherspoon x Hello Sunshine Book Club Pick "Get ready to be swept up in a whirlwind romance. It absolutely charmed me."--Reese Witherspoon "Josie Silver writes with a warmth so palpable her characters sneak their way into your heart and stay for a long time."--Jill Santopolo, New York Times-bestselling author of The Light We Lost Two people. Ten chances. One unforgettable love story. Laurie is pretty sure love at first sight doesn't exist anywhere but the movies. But then, through a misted-up bus window one snowy December day, she sees a man who she knows instantly is the one. Their eyes meet, there's a moment of pure magic...and then her bus drives away. Certain they're fated to find each other again, Laurie spends a year scanning every bus stop and cafe in London for him. But she doesn't find him, not when it matters anyway. Instead they "reunite" at a Christmas party, when her best friend Sarah giddily introduces her new boyfriend to Laurie. It's Jack, the man from the bus. It would be. What follows for Laurie, Sarah and Jack is ten years of friendship, heartbreak, missed opportunities, roads not taken, and destinies reconsidered. One Day in December is a joyous, heartwarming and immensely moving love story to escape into and a reminder that fate takes inexplicable turns along the route to happiness.

Charlotte Silver

Memories of a Restaurant Girlhood

Recounts the author's childhood in her mother's Harvard Square restaurant at the side of a rotating cast of eccentric staff members and her indomitable mother, describing how she grew into an understanding of the sacrifices her mother made to keep the family and restaurant afloat. 25,000 first printing.

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MVAERICK

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The Signal and the Noise

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Little Nothing

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A Winter in New York

Josie Silver

A Winter in New York

Silver RavenWolf

Witches' Key to Terror

Silver Ravenwolf

Witches' Night of Fear

Josie Silver

A Winter in New York

Hannah Howell; Adrienne Basso; Eve Silver

Nature of the Beast

Josie Silver

The Two Lives of Lydia Bird

Josie Silver

The Two Lives of Lydia Bird

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Murder at Witches' Bluff

Silver Ravenwolf

Witches' Night Out

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A Winter in New York

Josie Silver

A Winter in New York

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A Winter in New York

Marisa Silver

Little Nothing

Silver Ravenwolf

Witches' Night Out

Josie Silver

One Day in December

Josie Silver

A Winter in New York

Josie Silver

One Day in December

Charlotte Silver

Charlotte au Chocolat

Josie Silver

A Winter in New York

Josie Silver

The Two Lives of Lydia Bird